How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.